A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
